如果要归纳2016年营销的关键趋势，尤其是在移动和社交方面，我认为主要有以下几点：

• 社交媒体将继续主导中国市场

• 社交的属性在发生变化——由公开慢慢走向私人化

• 意见领袖（KOL）和影响力人物（Influencers）变得越来越重要，广告代理商在这个领域的竞争会更加激烈。

• 视频，尤其是移动视频，在全世界范围内都将占主导地位

下面我会逐条详细解读。

社交媒体：垂死或是欣欣向荣？

如果仅仅从标题来判断，或许你会对社交媒体的未来感到困惑。

此前盖普洛针对社交媒体营销做了一份报告，并给出了这样一个标题作为结论：“社会化媒体营销的神话，已经结束“。

引用报告中的几句话：

“社交媒体并不如许多企业希望的那样具备强大的、有说服力的营销力量”。“绝大多数（94%）使用Facebook、Twitter及其他社交媒体的消费者，他们只是借助这些社交网络与亲戚朋友保持联系。”

与此同时，eMarketer的报告显示：“一半的中国消费者在使用社交媒体”。

为什么会产生如此悬殊的结果？原因之一在于定义的不同：什么是社交媒体？比如微信究竟算不算社交媒体呢？如果把微信归为社交媒体，那是不是意味着，Line、WhatsApp、KakaoTalk这样聊天产品也应该被归为社交媒体？

这让我想起新西兰一个特别有名的电视广告，广告中问了一个问题——是泳衣还是内衣？同样的服装在不同的环境下（比如海边和超市），应该做出不同的定义。

当然，我们知道在中国微信能被视为，也应该被视作社交媒体。

那么，2015年中国社交媒体发展得怎么样？根据Kantar的调查，的确有一半被访问的中国消费者在使用社交媒体。

特别有意思的是，老年用户群体的数量在增长，55岁以上人群使用社交媒体的数量几乎翻了一番，另外，36-45岁的人群也有很大的增长。

当然，微信用户数很庞大，75%的受访者表示他们在用微信。根据微信官方的说法，2015年9月份，微信平台日登陆用户已经达到5.7亿人。但微信仍然是最难向西方企业老板解释的社交媒体平台，因为在西方没有一个和微信等同的产品，而且他们难以相信，中国能完全原创出这样的产品。

正如“互联网女皇”玛丽·米克在2013年预测的一样，社交的属性在不断改变，从更多的面向公众平台，比如微博和Facebook，到不断转向私人、私密的平台，比如微信和Snapchat。

当提及社交媒体时，我不禁想问，我们提出的问题在点子上吗？或者说，我们看问题的角度是不是错了？是不是把观察的望远镜拿倒了？移动与社交是整个行业的组成部分，但对大多数消费者而言，他们看到的只是他们想做什么以及怎么去做。

针对之前提及的盖普洛报告，华尔街日报曾说过：

“盖洛普发现消费者的参与度很大程度上受到一个问题的影响，那就是企业能否将触点连为一体，避免分散。社交媒体并不是孤立存在的，而消费者也不会单独通过某个渠道接触企业”。

从这个角度来看，或许这篇文章的标题应该改为“2016消费者体验趋势”，然后讲讲人们是如何使用移动设备，如何与核心圈子的朋友们相处的。

在这样的情况下，我们需要先回顾一些容易被忽略的长期趋势：

• 对于90后和00后而言，朋友是一个相对的概念。上一代人往往有一个朋友间固定的圈子，而年轻人对于朋友的定义则更加多变。

• 为什么这一点很重要，因为朋友会影响我们，哪怕是许久不见的朋友。

• 最近有一项愚蠢的研究表示：“社交媒体不会影响人们的购买行为“。他们当然不会，就好比枪不会自己杀人，是人在开枪一样。社交媒体本身是中立的，重要的是它在如何连接你我。

• 这就向我们指明了下一个重要的趋势。

意见领袖和影响力人物的重要性，甚至超过了代理商们

在2015年，我参加了在上海举办的第六届亚太数字营销变革峰会。小组讨论中有一位客户方的营销代表，他向我讲述了一个在微博和微信上有着众多粉丝的大厨，是如何将影响力做到比专业的代理公司还要好的案例。这就是意见领袖的力量，而且这一现象不光发生在中国。

在西方市场，影响力营销的规模正在壮大，根据eMarketer给出的数据，35%的品牌公司有着自己成熟的影响力人物营销战略。

著名的市场营销专家ChrisPenn 做过这样一个计算，将大多数品牌的社交媒体账号和影响力人物的账号进行比较，得出了一个非常惊人的结果：无论在哪儿，影响者们的影响力指标都要比品牌的同行们高出954% 到 14,765%。也难怪营销人在争先恐后，尽可能多的争取影响力人物。

KOL们崛起的原因之一是他们有能力做到高质量的内容产出，同时保持低价。“术业有专攻”意味着比代理商们有着更灵敏商业嗅觉的KOL可以把同一件事情做得更好。

下面我列举了KOL正在越发强大的几个原因：

• KOL逐步走向专业化（例如：视频录制、版面编辑、平面设计等）

• KOL创作的题材更有激情，也更容易受到读者或观众的喜爱。

• KOL可以将受众和创意服务结合在一起。

• 更灵活的合作形式

那些老代理商们的处境更加窘迫，要么被迫去证明他们的价值，要么选择成为无关紧要的中间人。

在中国市场，KOL更是特别重要，2015 Edelman信任指数显示中国消费者对于KOL的信任度仅次于政府，NGO和媒体。

所以当公司出现信任危机的时候，一个值得信赖的中间人就显得尤为重要。

一种更加个人化的在线交流方式正在中国发生，就像一篇英文文章中所说的：“我看到了媒体的未来，它在中国。”

文章提到，在中国，个人往往比品牌更重要，前者毫无疑问是社交和移动交流的中心。传统媒体往往会忽略新闻背后的‘人’，而‘自媒体’却在突出人的个性和声音。”

当然，并不是每一个KOL生来就是一样的，从规模的角度来看，我认为：

• 一些非常强大的KOL发条微博就能实现巨大的用户触及，但从长远的角度看，效果非常有限。

• 一些小的KOL或刚开始发展的KOL会在特定的话题上具备更纯粹的热情，他们可能处在创业阶段，甚至还兼有全职的工作，但钱并不是他们关注的焦点。

• 聪明的预算会向这些小的KOL倾斜，找到他们需要更多的技巧，观察和耐心，这些对于现代代理商和营销者来说不是件容易事。

社交向个人回落，聊天媒体升温

在中国之外的地方，尤其是亚洲地区，snapchat和whatsapp正在占据越来越多的消费者时间。甚至连美国白宫都有了自己的snapchat账号，坦率的说，它甚至已经成为企业间交流的一种重要方式。

营销顾问Scott Monty曾就职于福特汽车公司，他表示：“随着内容营销的关注度与日俱增，我们会看到越来越多的‘内容震动’发生。这意味着更多个人形式的沟通方式将会越来越重要，例如短信和电子邮件。”

在英国，卫报将2015命名为电邮新闻之年。中国的情况略有不同，但是可以把它看作一个预示，新闻正在从社交媒体中流出，转向下一个阵地。

Monty也提道：“人们会更加倾向于亲密且私人的联系，也让更多的营销人员选择基于影响力人物和听众之间的信任传递品牌价值。我不会认为这是一种倒退，营销人员将会在这种新的注意力关系中投入更多精力。”

为什么消费者会离开公开的平台，文章给出了下面三个原因：

• 就像很多年轻人会在朋友圈中屏蔽父母一样，社交媒体正在趋于家庭化，而年轻人们需要一个不受家庭影响的表达自己的地方。

• 年轻人希望信息具备时效性，而不是永远都呆在自己的主页。

• 不少公司正在使用社交媒体档案筛选潜在的雇员，他们不想总是被HR打扰。

微信群：一个隐藏的宝藏？

微信在中国继续保持着主导地位，许多官方账号和电商借此提供品牌互动，但是越来越多的行为悄悄的发生在个人微信群中。

未来的KOL会不会演变成微信群主呢？已经有许多人将微信群从100扩展到500人，围绕着共同的兴趣培养自己的小社群。人们可以在这儿做买卖，聊美食，学英语，甚至只是单纯为了多一个抢红包的地方。

现在还很难预计这些微信群的影响力，坦白说，这还不能算是一个可以自由营销的场所。它所处的阶段和所有形式的社交媒体在开始时的状况一样，属于蛮荒时代。还记得电影"The Social Network"（社交网络）中的段落吗？Sean Parker警告马克扎克伯格，“千万别过早把广告带进来，这会破坏我们的团体“。

视频让内容永生

一位美国知名的营销评论员Jay Baer说过：“2016年，视频将成为最主要的内容及社交营销手段，这一点无关企业的大小或所处的行业。”

每当我认为视频消费已经达到天花板的时候，都被证明错了。现在，创建和消费视频资源变得越来越容易，人们可以选择Facebook，也可以选择Periscope和Meerkat这样的视频直播平台。2016年，视频将成为社交媒体和内容营销最佳的载体。

视频在建立与消费者之间的信任上有着非常大的潜力，一则视频可以从以下几个方面传递和支撑品牌信息：

• 内容本身（视频的剧本）

• 口头传播

• 演员的外表和服装

• 背景及周围环境

• 音乐

• 视频编辑

这些要素可以增加或减弱品牌的影响力，而视频在这点上表现出了强于其他所有媒体的实力。

2016年的视频行业将比以往更加强大，甚至超越移动。

总结，品牌应该做什么？

• 一如过去，首先你要了解自己，知道自己在做什么。观察可口可乐从善因营销（cause-based marketing）转回产品为中心的营销是件很有意思的事情，有些人认为其他品牌也应该效仿。但这其实取决于你的品牌，和你的长期设想。究竟是建立一个品牌，还是仅仅只为销售产品？又或许你两个都想兼顾，如何才能做到呢？

• 了解你的观众，和他们做事的方式，特别是在中国的海外品牌，对他们来说这是一个永恒的挑战。KOL和影响力人物越发重要，企业不光要把他们作为一个传递品牌信息的渠道，更重要的是借此理解和看透你的受众。

• 为你的受众提供有价值的功能。知道他们想做什么，然后去帮助他们。不要想当然的跳起来说“我们需要做一个app！”也许重新设计一下手机网页端，或者重新架构下微信公众号就可以解决消费者的需求。

以下为作者投稿英文原版：

Social and Mobile in 2016: people power!

by Simon Young

CEO and founder, syENGAGE

As we look ahead to the key marketing trendsof 2016, particularly in mobile and social, here's what I see:

●      Social Media continues to dominate China

●      But the nature of Social is changing - less public, more private

●      KOLs (China) or Influencers (rest of the world) are becoming moreimportant, and maybe (just maybe) agencies are fighting to stay relevant

●      Video - especially mobile video - dominates around the world

Let's dive into these points in more detail:

Socialmedia: dying or thriving?

If you judged by headlines alone, you might beconfused about the future of social media.

One headline, reporting a Gallup report onSocial Media Marketing, screams that the "myth of social mediamarketing" is over.

Some quotes from the report:

"Social media are notthe powerful and persuasive marketing force many companies hoped they wouldbe.”

 

"The vast majority ofconsumers (94 percent) who use Facebook, Twitter, and other social networkingchannels do so to connect with family and friends."

Meanwhile, an eMarketer report reads that"half of Chinese consumers are using social media".

Why the disparity? One reason is the problemof definition: what is social media? Is WeChat considered when talking about"social media"? And if so, does that mean LINE, WhatsApp andKakaoTalk should also be considered social media?

It reminds me of a famous TVC in New Zealand,asking the question, swimsuit or underwear? The same item of clothing underdifferent circumstances (at the beach, compared with, say, in the supermarket)should be defined differently.

Of course, in China we know that WeChat canand should be considered social media.

So, what about social media in 2015? Accordingto Kantar research, indeed half of Chinese consumers surveyed are using socialmedia.

Particularly interesting is the growth inolder age groups, with people aged 55+ almost doubling in their social mediause, and 36-to-45-year-olds also experiencing a big increase.

Of course … WeChat is the biggest, with 75% ofsurvey respondents saying they use wechat. WeChat remains the hardest socialmedia platform to explain to western bosses, because there's no westernequivalent, and they can't comprehend that China would invent somethingcompletely original ;)

There's a change in the nature of social, aspredicted by Mary Meeker in 2013, away from big public-facing platforms such asWeibo and Facebook, towards more private, intimate settings like WeChat andSnapchat.

As we consider social media, I can't help butask, are we asking the right questions? Or are we looking at the wrong end ofthe telescope? Mobile and social are industry constructs, but to mostconsumers, all they see is what they want to do, and how they want to do it.

Going back to the Gallup report mentionedearlier, the Wall Street Journal had these wise words to say:

“Gallup has consistentlyfound that customer engagement is influenced in large part by how well acompany aligns all of its touch points.Social media do not exist in a vacuum,and consumers rarely interact with companies through these channels alone.”

In this way, perhaps my thoughts should betitled "Customer experience trends for 2016", which include whatpeople do on their mobile devices, and how they interact with their circle offriends.

In which case, we have to consider a fewlong-term trends that are easily forgotten:

• "Friends" is a relative term for the 90s and 00sgeneration. While older generations have a small circle of friends (<150,Dunbar's number), younger folks have a much more fluid definition of whatconstitutes a "friend"

• Why that's important is, friends influence us, even the friends wedon't see very often.

• A stupid recent study found that "social media doesn'tinfluence purchase behaviour". Well, of course not. This is like sayingguns don't kill people, people do. Social media in itself is a neutral thing,what's important is how it connects people.

• Which brings us to the next important trend:

KOLs orInfluencers matter much more, maybe even more than agencies.

In 2015, I took part in the 6th AnnualEvolution of Digital Marketing Conference in Shanghai. One of my fellowpanelists, a client-side marketer, told the story of how a chef with a bigfollowing on weibo and WeChat was outperforming the creative work they werecommissioning their agency to do. That's the power of KOLs. And it's not onlyin China.

In the west, influencer marketing is alsobecoming big, with 35% of companies having a mature influencer strategyaccording to this article.

Well-known digital marketer Chris Penn did the math, comparing major brandaccounts against big influencer accounts. The results are stunning: "Influencersare anywhere from 954% to 14,765% more influential than their brand peers. Nowonder marketers are racing to court influencers as quickly and heavily aspossible."

One reason for the rise of KOLs is the ability to create highquality content at a low cost. Prosumer technologymeans that a KOL with good business sense can probably do a better job than anagency.

Here are some of the reasons KOLs are gainingmore power:

• Affordable professional-grade technology (e.g. video cameras,editing suites, graphic design, etc)

• More passion for the subject matter - something that readers/viewerscan spot (and they can spot fakes also)

• An audience! KOLs combine the audience of a media platform, and thecreative services of a creative agency.

• More flexibility on ways to cooperate together

The result for poor old agencies: they'rebeing forced to prove their value or be ousted as unnecessary middlemen.

In China, KOLs are especially important, asthe 2015 Edelman Trust Barometer shows business is the group that Chinese consumers trust least(after government, NGOs and media). 

So, when businesses are less trusted, atrusted intermediary becomes all the more important.

In China generally, a more personal style ofonline communication is emerging, as noted in an English language articlecalled "I've seen the future of media, and it's China".

The author says:

• "InChina, the individual, rather than some brand, is indubitably at the heart ofsocial and mobile communication. Traditional media tends to elide the ‘person’behind the news, while “we media” is nothing without individual voices andpersonalities."

Of course, not all KOLs are created equal. I think of KOLsas on a scale:

• from industrial-strength KOLs who may achieve huge reach with oneweibo post, but whose long-term effectiveness may be very limited.

• to mini-KOLs or pre-KOLs who have a genuine passion for the subject,are in the beginning stage of their empire (maybe still holding a full timejob) and not just about the money

• The smart money would go on the mini-KOLs, although identifying andfinding them requires much skill, observation and patience - something thatmodern agency or marketer life makes very difficult.

Theheadlong retreat into personal and chat media continues

Outside China (and especially in Asia),snapchat and whatsapp are taking up more and more consumer time. The U.S. WhiteHouse has launched a snapchat account, which means it is fair to say, it hasarrived as a mainstream form of corporate communications.

Marketing consultant Scott Monty, formerly ofthe Ford Motor Company, says: "“With the increased focus on contentmarketing, we’ll continue to see 'content shock' in play. This means that the more personal forms of communication —particularly messaging and email — will become increasingly important."

In the UK, the Guardian news organisation named 2015 the year ofthe email newsletter. It's not likely to happen in China, but it is anindicator of a shift away from mass, broadcast social media.

Monty continues: "This desire for the more intimate andpersonal connection will also drive more marketers to embrace influencermarketing, relying on the trusted relationships that influencers already havewith their audiences. While I wouldn’t call it a full-blown retreat, marketerswill be paying more attention to the relationships that drive attention.”

As for why consumers are leaving the more public platforms, this article says it's for three reasons:

• "Grandma likes my profile pic" - social media is becomingtoo family-friendly, and teens want a place to express themselves

• "If it's on Facebook, it's forever" - people want somethingthat won't last

• Companies using social media profiles to screen potential employees

WeChatGroups: Hidden Treasure?

Within China, WeChat continues to dominate,with official accounts and ecommerce providing the obvious way for brands toengage, but potentially much more activity happening in individual groups.

Could it be that the KOLs of the future arethe dedicated group owners, some of them running up to 100 groups of up to 500members each, all cultivating a sense of community around some common purpose,be it trading commodities, western food, the English language, or simplygetting lucky in a red envelope group.

It's hard to know the impact these groups arehaving, because it's, generally speaking, a marketer-free zone. Just like allforms of social media were when they began. (Remember "The SocialNetwork" when Sean Parker warned Mark Zuckerberg not to introduce ads tooearly: "Don't spoil the party".)

Videosbring content alive

In America, well-known marketing commentatorJay Baer says: "“2016 will be the year when video becomes a primary content and socialmarketing consideration for all companies regardless of size or category.

Every time I think consumers have reached maximum videoconsumption, I am proven wrong. And now, it’s even easier to create and consumevideo, especially with the rise of video on Facebook as well as Periscope,Meerkat, Blab and more. In 2016, video will take its rightful place as thepetri dish of great social media and content marketing.”

Video has the potential to build trust and put a human face onyour brand - literally. A video message conveys and supports a brand message inthese ways:

●     The message itself (script)

●     The spoken delivery

●     The costume and appearance of the persondelivering

●     The backdrop and surroundings

●     Music

●     Editing

These elements can support or undercut a brand in a way far morepowerful than most other media.

In 2016, video will play a stronger role than before, and bemore mobile.

What should brands do?

• As always, know your story.Know what you're about.It's interesting to see Coca Cola returning to product-centricmarketing and away from cause-based marketing. This is interesting, and someare saying it's a sign that other brands should do the same. But it does dependon your brand, and how long-term you are thinking. Are you wanting to build abrand, or just sell product? Do you have to choose between the two? How can youdo both?

• Know your audience, and how they do things. Especially for foreign brands working inChina, this is a constant challenge, and that's why KOLs and influencers becomeso important - not only as a channel to send your message out to the audience,but also to understand and get insight into your audience.

• Be functional for youraudience. What is the job they want to do? Find away to help them do it. And don't automatically jump to "we must build anapp for that" - maybe you can help them do what they want to do, simplywith a mobile website redesign, or the way your public wechat account isorganised. 

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